Friday, March 29, 2013

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16: Keys to the game

#3 seed Florida Gators (28-7 overall) vs. #15 seed Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (26-10 overall)
Cowboys Stadium (capacity: 100,000), Arlington, TX, 10:38 p.m.

Broadcast Information

TV: TBS; Marv Albert (play-by-play), Steve Kerr (analyst), and Craig Sager (sideline)
Radio: WRUF/Gator IMG Sports Network; Mick Hubert (play-by-play) and Mark Wise (analyst)
Streaming: March Madness on Demand

Head Coaches

University of Florida: Billy Donovan (414-165, 17th season at Florida; 449-185 overall, 19th season)
Florida Gulf Coast: Andy Enfield (41-27, 2nd season at FGCU/overall)

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Quality wins: Miami, Mercer, Georgetown, San Diego State

Projected starting lineup

#0 Brett Comer (6'3", 192 lbs SO) Season stats: 8.1 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3.1 rpg, 1.5 steals per game
#2 Bernard Thompson (6'3", 166 lbs SO) Season stats: 14.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.8 steals per game
#25 Sherwood Brown (6'4", 200 lbs SR) Season stats: 15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg
#20 Chase Fieler (6'8", 205 lbs JR) Season stats: 12.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.3 blocks per game
#12 Eric McKinght (6'9", 210 lbs RS SO) Season stats: 6.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg

Bench

#23 Eddie Murray (6'8", 205 lbs RS SR) Season stats: 3.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg
#5 Christophe Varidel (6'2", 170 lbs JR) Season stats: 6.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg
#15 Filip Cvjeticanin (6'9", 218 lbs SO) Season stats: 3.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg
#35 DaJuan Graf (6'0", 170 lbs FR) Season stats: 2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg

Keys to the game:

1.  The Gator defense has to keep Brett Comer out of the lane so that he can't drive in for a layup or find an open teammate.  Junior guard Scottie Wilbekin said this during an interview yesterday, and it's probably the most important objective.  I'm almost certain that Wilbekin will start out on the Eagles' point guard so that should be quite a matchup to watch.

2.  FGCU forward Chase Fieler is a "stretch-four" that senior forward Erik Murphy will have the pleasure of handling.  Fieler has made 32/85 3-pointers this season so he's someone we need to keep an eye on.  Along with his perimeter play, he also has the ability to leap.  His alley-oop in the upset of #2 seed Georgetown in the second round has probably been the most memorable play of this year's NCAA Tournament so far.

3.  The Eagles do not have a player that weighs over 218 pounds.  Their tallest active player is 6'9", so the Gators will obviously have the advantage strength-wise in the post.  Their lack of girth makes their big men sort of hybrid players, meaning they can mix it up inside and also take their defender out to the perimeter.

4.  The Eagles have virtually no post presence, so our guards will need to pound the ball inside to our big guys as we have the advantage inside.  The same thing is true when the Eagles have the ball inside.  Unless one of their big men is having a stellar game, there would be no reason for us to double-team in the post.  Doing this would give their big men the easy decision to find a guard on the perimeter for a shot or drive.

5.  Coach Andy Enfield's team plays an uptempo style, are extremely athletic, and like to push the pace.  To the Gators' advantage, that's the kind of pace that we prefer as well.  However, the Eagles may try to slow the game down if we find ourselves in a deficit.  

6.  Lastly, the only way that I see the Gators losing is if either FGCU begins the game hot by hitting some three's to get the pro-FGCU crowd into the game or if the Gators beat themselves (i.e. turnovers, bad shots, foul trouble).

Facts
  • Junior forward Will Yeguete has not practiced all week due to some discomfort in his right knee, which he just had surgery on.  He's cleared to play tonight, but it's uncertain how much time he'll get on the floor.
  • Murphy and freshman guard Michael Frazier have missed a few practices this week due to bouts of the flu, but both players participated in practice yesterday and shootaround today so it'll be interesting to see how their stamina is.  Both need to stay hydrated most importantly.
  • Florida's +18.2 scoring margin is the best in the nation.
  • The Gators have won five consecutive NCAA regional semifinal games.  Under Donovan, the Gators are 5-1 in the round of 16.
  • Senior guard Mike Rosario had his biggest scoring output as a Gator on Sunday against Minnesota when he scored 25 points.
  • Florida is one of four teams to advance to the last three Sweet 16's, joining Marquette, Ohio State, and Kansas.
  • According to @ESPNStatsInfo, Trey Burke became the "1st player with 20 points and 10 assists in a Sweet 16 game since Billy Donovan for Providence in 1987."  Burke led the Michigan comeback from a 14-point deficit late in the second half for the overtime victory.  
  • The winner of the UF/FGCU Sweet 16 game plays Michigan on Sunday for a chance to go to the Final Four in Atlanta. 
Final score prediction: Florida 77 - Florida Gulf Coast 64

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