Saturday, February 22, 2014

Florida expects tough contest at Ole Miss

Game 27: #2 University of Florida Gators (24-2, 13-0 SEC) at Ole Miss (16-10, 7-6 SEC)
C.M. "Tad" Smith Coliseum (capacity: 8,867), Oxford, Mississippi. 12:00 p.m.

Opinion/Analysis

The Gators travel to Oxford to face the Ole Miss Rebels, a team that defeated Florida in the SEC Championship game last season.  The Rebels, under head coach Andy Kennedy, are led by two players: Marshall Henderson and Jarvis Summers.  How those two players play will determine the outcome of today's game.  Henderson, who averages 4.5 3-pointers per game, is the epitome of a love/hate player: If you're an Ole Miss fan, you love him; however, if you're an opposing fan, you hate him.  His antics can drive fans crazy (including myself) and I cannot hide the fact that I dislike him.  But he's a great scorer and I have to give him credit for that.  Summers isn't too shabby, either, as he averages 17 points per game.  Ole Miss' frontcourt players are bigger than Florida's, but they don't really give the Rebels much in terms of offense.

The Gators, who have a chance to move up to #1 in the country with a win today, come into today's game a little hobbled.  Michael Frazier (wrist) might see his shooting affected, while backup point guard Kasey Hill (groin) is out.  The Gators are going for their 19th-straight victory.  The Gators are 5-3 at Ole Miss under head coach Billy Donovan.

The Rebels will be fired up for this game after dropping Tuesday's contest to Kentucky at home.  If Henderson is hitting shots and the crowd starts going crazy, the Gators might be in trouble.  Dorian Finney-Smith needs to get his rhythm back, as he's 0/18 from 3-point range in the last six games.  

Ole Miss has lost four of its last five games, but averages more 3-pointers (8.1) per game than any team in the SEC, but also gives up the most threes (7.0) in the conference.

Projected starting lineups and reserves:

FLORIDA

#5 Scottie Wilbekin (6'2", 176 pounds, SR) Season stats: 13.6 points per game, 3.7 assists per game
#20 Michael Frazier II (6'6", 195 pounds, SO) 12.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg
#24 Casey Prather (6'6", 212 pounds, SR) 15.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg
#15 Will Yeguete (6'8", 230 pounds, SR) 5.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg
#4 Patric Young (6'9", 240 pounds, SR) 10.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.0 block per game

Reserves

#10 Dorian Finney-Smith (6'8", 212 pounds, RS-SO) 9.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg
#0 Kasey Hill (6'1", 181 pounds, FR) 5.6 ppg, 3.2 apg *WILL NOT PLAY (GROIN)
#23 Chris Walker (6'10", 220 pounds, FR) 1.6 ppg, 1.2 rpg
#25 DeVon Walker (6'6", 195 pounds, SO) 2.7 ppg, 1.4 rpg
#30 Jacob Kurtz (6'6", 210 pounds, JR) 2.0 ppg, 1.9 rpg

OLE MISS

#32 Jarvis Summers (6'3", 186 pounds, JR) Season stats: 17.0 points per game, 38 assists per game
#22 Marshall Henderson (6'2", 177 pounds, SR) 19.4 ppg, 2.2 apg
#10 LaDarius White (6'6", 211 pounds, JR) 7.9 ppg, 3.3 rebounds per game
#34 Aaron Jones (6'9", 220 pounds, JR) 6.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.1 blocks per game
#23 Dwight Coleby (6'9", 236 pounds, FR) 1.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg

Reserves

#3 Derrick Millinghaus (5'10", 172 pounds, SO) 7.5 ppg, 2.4 apg
#13 Anthony Perez (6'9", 213 pounds, SO) 7.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg
#11 Sebastian Saiz (6'9", 233 pounds, FR) 4.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg
#4 Demarco Cox (6'8", 276 pounds, JR) 4.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg
#1 Martavious Newby (6'3", 210 pounds, SO) 1.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg

Broadcast Information

TV: CBS; Ian Eagle (play-by-play) and Doug Gottlieb (analyst)
Radio: Gator IMG Sports Network; Mick Hubert (play-by-play) and Bill Koss (analyst)
Streaming: CBSSports.com

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Florida looks to continue streaking in highly-anticipated game at Kentucky

Game 25: #3 University of Florida Gators (22-2, 11-0 SEC) at #14 University of Kentucky Wildcats (19-5, 9-2 SEC)
Rupp Arena (capacity: 23,000), Lexington, Kentucky. 9:00 p.m.

Opinion/Analysis

Arguably the most-anticipated matchup of the season takes place tonight as the Gators try to win their 17th straight game and remain undefeated in conference.  As part of ESPN's Rivalry Week, they will take on the Kentucky Wildcats, traditionally Florida's biggest rival in the sport.  ESPN's College Gameday is on site in Lexington and this is a good omen for the Gators, as they are 4-0 when Gameday is on site when Kentucky is involved.  As a fan, there's just something about playing Kentucky that gets the juices flowing more so than any other opponent.  I enjoy watching the Gators play at Rupp rather than in the O'Dome because the atmosphere is so electric (not dissing Gator basketball fans, but Rupp is one of the greatest arenas in the game and "Big Blue" fans are the best in the country).

Before this torrid two-game road trip began, I said that I would be happy with a 1-1 split.  Playing at Tennessee is never easy, but the Gators were able to prevail, 67-58, with a strong second half performance.  Tonight is a totally different matter, though.  The 'Cats are 81-2 at home under head coach John Calipari.  Coach Cal has called on the fans to stand for the final eight minutes of each half, attempting to use the crowd to spur on his team.  What the Gator players need to do is block out the crowd and play ball.  What they can control is what goes on inside the lines, not outside.  And if they can somehow take the crowd out of the game, that will do wonders for them.

In terms of the series history, Kentucky has dominated, with a record of 94-34 versus Florida.  Under head coach Billy Donovan, the Gators are 14-24, including 3-14 on the road.  The Gators will be looking for their first win at Rupp since 2007.  The last meeting between the two teams was a tough loss for the Gators, as they were scoreless for the final 7:36 and the Wildcats made a valiant comeback to win, 61-57, at home.

Donovan was a Kentucky assistant coach under Rick Pitino from 1989-1994, where he helped coach current Gator assistant coach John Pelphrey (1989-1992).

Experience will be a big storyline tonight, as the Gators start four seniors, along with sophomore Michael Frazier II, and the Wildcats start five highly-touted freshmen.  I believe the key to tonight's game will be how each team's bench responds.  Can Dorian Finney-Smith, Kasey Hill, Chris Walker, and DeVon Walker bring more energy and provide more lift than Willie Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress, and Jarrod Polson.  Another interesting thing to look out for is if one of Kentucky's other bench players steps up.  Maybe Dominique Hawkins, Jon Hood, Marcus Lee, or Derek Willis will be called upon.

I expect this game to be really tight until the waning minutes.  I actually believe that Kentucky is the favorite, but that doesn't mean I think they'll win.  All the stars are aligned for a UK upset tonight.  Let's see if the Gators can make a lot of Wildcat fans unhappy tonight.  

*Key team stats for both teams:

FLORIDA

Scoring defense: 57.9 points per game (1st in the SEC and 6th in the NCAA)
Scoring margin: +13.3 (1st in the SEC and 14th in the NCAA)
Field goal percentage defense: 39.3% (1st in the SEC and 20th in the NCAA)
Opponent's rebounding: 31.1 rebounds per game (2nd in the SEC)
Turnovers: 11.5 per game (2nd in the SEC)
Turnover margin: +2.4 (3rd in the SEC)
Fouls: 16.2 (1st in the SEC and 14th in the NCAA)

KENTUCKY

Field goal percentage: 46.8% (1st in the SEC)
Free throws made: 501 (1st in the SEC and 16th in the NCAA)
Free throws attempted: 742 (1st in the SEC and 6th in the NCAA)
Points per possession: 1.15 (1st in the SEC and 18th in the NCAA)
Points per game: 78.8 (2nd in the SEC)
Rebounds per game: 41.8 (1st in the SEC and 7th in the NCAA)
Offensive rebounds per game: 14.8 (1st in the SEC and 4th in the NCAA)
Blocks per game: 6.7 (1st in the SEC and 4th in the NCAA)

*Projected starting lineups and reserves:

FLORIDA

#5 Scottie Wilbekin (6'2", 176 lbs. SR) Season stats: 13.0 points per game, 3.7 assists per game
#20 Michael Frazier II (6'6", 195 lbs. SO) 12.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg
#24 Casey Prather (6'6", 212 lbs. SR) 15.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg
#15 Will Yeguete (6'8", 230 lbs. SR) 5.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg
#4 Patric Young (6'9", 240 lbs. SR) 10.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.0 block per game

Reserves:

#10 Dorian Finney-Smith (6'8", 212 lbs. RS-SO) 9.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg
#0 Kasey Hill (6'1", 181 lbs. FR) 5.9 ppg, 3.2 apg
#23 Chris Walker (6'10", 220 lbs. FR) 2.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg
#25 DeVon Walker (6'6", 195 lbs. SO) 2.7 ppg, 1.4 rpg
#30 Jacob Kurtz (6'6", 210 lbs. JR) 2.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg

KENTUCKY

#2 Aaron Harrison (6'6", 218 lbs. FR) Season stats: 13.8 points per game, 3.2 rebounds per game
#5 Andrew Harrison (6'6", 215 lbs. FR) 11.0, 3.5 assists per game
#1 James Young (6'6", 215 lbs. FR) 14.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg
#30 Julius Randle (6'9", 250 lbs. FR) 15.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg
#44 Dakari Johnson (7'0", 265 lbs. FR) 4.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg

Reserves

#15 Willie Cauley-Stein (7'0", 244 lbs. SO) 7.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.1 blocks per game
#22 Alex Poythress (6'8", 239 lbs. SO) 6.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg
#3 Jarrod Polson (6'2", 182 lbs. SR) 1.2 ppg, 0.7 rpg
#00 Marcus Lee (6'9", 215 lbs. FR) 2.7 ppg, 1.5 rpg
#25 Dominique Hawkins (6'0", 193 lbs. FR) 1.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg
#35 Derek Willis (6'9", 205 lbs. FR) 1.3 ppg, 0.7 rpg
#4 Jon Hood (6'7", 215 lbs. RS-SR) 1.5 ppg, 0.6 apg

*Broadcast Information

TV: ESPN; Dan Shulman (play-by-play), Dick Vitale (analyst), and Shannon Spake (sideline reporter)
Radio: Gator IMG Sports Network; Mick Hubert (play-by-play) and Bill Koss (analyst)
Streaming: ESPN3.com

*Statistics, rosters, news, and broadcast information provided by Gatorzone.com, UKathletics.com, and statsheet.com